Overview
The State Succession Index (SSI) and the State Succession Watchlist (SSW) provide a structured, comparative assessment of state succession–related developments worldwide. The methodology combines legal, political, and institutional indicators to evaluate both current succession impact (Index) and emerging succession risk (Watchlist).
State succession is understood broadly to include changes or contested changes in sovereignty, territorial control, governance authority, and international legal continuity, as well as their implications for recognition, treaties, and international arrangements.
Conceptual Approach
The methodology is guided by three core principles:
- Legal and Political Centrality – State succession is treated primarily as a question of international law and governance, not solely conflict or instability.
- Comparability Across Cases – All entities are assessed using the same indicators, scales, and aggregation rules to ensure consistency.
- Transparency and Replicability – Scores are supported by publicly available sources and narrative explanations, allowing independent scrutiny.
Units of Analysis
The Index and Watchlist assess sovereign states, territories, and entities with contested or evolving international status
Inclusion does not imply political recognition or endorsement of claims.
Core Indicators
Each entity is evaluated using six indicators reflecting different dimensions of state succession:
1. Territorial Dispute – Assesses the existence and intensity of competing claims over territory, including legal disputes, diplomatic standoffs, or de facto control challenges.
2. Sovereignty Change – Measures the degree to which sovereignty is being transferred, contested, or redefined, whether de jure or de facto.
3. Governance Transition – Captures constitutional, institutional, or structural changes that alter how authority is exercised over a territory.
4. International Recognition – Evaluates the level of international recognition, diplomatic consensus, and participation in international organisations.
5. Legal Succession and Continuity – Assesses clarity and stability regarding international rights and obligations, including treaty obligations, state property, sovereign debt, state responsibility, citizenship, and property rights.
6. Disruption Impact – Measures the broader impact of succession developments on international legal, political, economic, commercial, or institutional arrangements.
Scoring System
Each indicator is scored on a 0–10 scale:
- 0 – No issue present; stable conditions
- 1–3 – Low-level or latent issue
- 4–6 – Active but contained issue
- 7–8 – Serious and unresolved issue
- 9–10 – Acute and destabilising issue
Scores are assigned based on qualitative and quantitative assessment of available evidence.
Weighting and Aggregation
To reflect their relative significance, indicators are weighted as follows:
| Indicator | Weight |
| Territorial Dispute | 10% |
| Sovereignty Change | 20% |
| Governance Transition | 10% |
| International Recognition | 15% |
| Legal Succession | 25% |
| Disruption Impact | 20% |
A composite score is calculated using a weighted average of all six indicators.
Index Classification
Based on composite scores, entities are grouped into categories:
| Composite Score | Category |
| 7.5–10.0 | High Succession Impact |
| 5.0–7.4 | Moderate Succession Impact |
| 2.5–4.9 | Latent Succession Risk |
| 0–2.4 | Stable |
The State Succession Index ranks entities according to these scores, reflecting the current level of succession-related impact.
State Succession Watchlist Methodology
The State Succession Watchlist is forward-looking and identifies entities where significant succession developments are likely within the next 12 months.
An entity may be included on the Watchlist if one or more of the following conditions are met:
- A significant year-on-year increase in composite score
- A sharp rise in key indicators (Sovereignty Change, Governance Transition, or Recognition)
- Anticipated political, legal, or diplomatic events (e.g., referendums, negotiations, court rulings)
Watchlist entries are assigned a risk level (High, Medium, Low) based on trend analysis and anticipated developments.
Data Sources
The Index and Watchlist rely exclusively on open-source, verifiable materials, including:
- Official government and international organisation documents
- International and national court and arbitral decisions
- Treaty texts and constitutional instruments
- Public statements by relevant authorities, including self-determination group statements
- Reputable international media and academic analysis.
Review and Updates
- Continuous monitoring throughout the year
- Annual full update of scores, rankings, and Watchlist entries
- Methodological refinements are disclosed transparently
Expert review is used to validate scoring consistency and address complex or borderline cases.
Narrative Justification
Each Index and Watchlist entry is accompanied by a qualitative narrative explaining:
- The nature of the state succession issue
- Key legal and political drivers
- International implications
- Likely future developments
This ensures that numerical scores are contextualised and intelligible.
Disclaimer
The State Succession Index and Watchlist are analytical tools. Inclusion, ranking, or scoring does not constitute legal judgment, political recognition, policy endorsement, or border recognition.
We welcome feedback from users, including suggestions for additional data sources. Please email feedback and questions to mirbek.sydygaliev@statesuccessionindex.org.