July 2025 Summary The 2025 UK–Mauritius Agreement on the Chagos Archipelago presents a complex case of state succession, wherein sovereignty is formally transferred to Mauritius while the United Kingdom retains extensive control over Diego Garcia for military purposes. Although this territorial transfer does not alter the legal personality of either...
Read MoreOn 6 May 2025, Canada’s Alberta Province Premier Danielle Smith announced that the oil-rich province Alberta could hold its first-ever referendum on independence in 2026.[1] In her speech Premier Smith said: “To be clear from the outset, our government will not be putting a vote on separation from Canada on the referendum ballot; however,...
Read MoreApril 2025. During the inaugural European Union – Central Asia Summit held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on 3–4 April 2025, the five Central Asian republics – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan – signed a joint declaration[1] reaffirming their commitment to the principles of international law, including respect for the sovereignty,...
Read More19 April 2025. On 26 March 2025, Kenya officially recognised Kosovo as an independent State, marking the first such recognition of Kosovo in nearly five years. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Diaspora of the Republic of Kosovo “welcome[d] Kenya’s decision to recognize the Republic of Kosova,”[1] confirming that the...
Read More7 April 2025. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called for increased Arctic defence collaboration with the United States during a visit to Greenland on 3 April 2025, and firmly dismissed the US desire to annex the semi-autonomous Danish territory. “This is not only about Greenland or Denmark, this is about...
Read More7 April 2025. US President Donald Trump has signed off on the UK’s handover of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, as Downing Street has indicated, paving the way for the UK to cede sovereignty over its last African colony after a six-month standoff [1]. A spokesperson for British Prime Minister...
Read MoreStateSuccessionIndex.org is a new and original platform designed to assess and rank the probability of state succession, track the dynamics of processes that may lead to it, and predict its potential effects. It is the first dedicated resource for analysing the legal consequences of sovereignty change – whether through secession, unification, annexation, cession of territory, or other shifts in statehood.
When borders shift or governments undergo substantial change, the impact on treaties, contracts, property rights, financial obligations, debt, citizenship, international responsibility, and recognition can be both immediate and far-reaching. These legal dimensions are often overlooked in mainstream geopolitical and economic analysis. The SSI fills this gap by offering a structured, comparative, and forward-looking framework to assess how changes in statehood affect legal continuity and international obligations.
In a world of increasing geopolitical volatility – from independence referendums to territorial disputes and armed conflicts – the SSI provides a unique perspective for understanding and preparing for the legal realities of state succession.
Our Vision & Aim
States are not static entities; they can undergo changes that lead to new forms of statehood, governance, legal systems, modes of cooperation, and territorial boundaries.
The State Succession Index aims to contribute to the stability and predictability of international legal, diplomatic, and commercial arrangements; the rule of law; the protection of human rights; the peaceful resolution of disputes; and the smooth transition of states, regardless of their developmental context.
The notion of State Succession
The Index adopts a new and original approach to state succession in order to address the challenges that contemporary succession poses to international law and policy. In this context, the term “state succession” refers to the succession of both states and governments, with certain specific considerations. In particular, by state succession, we mean both the replacement of one State by another in the responsibility for the international relations of territory and the process by which a state fundamentally alters its structures of power and authority. In such cases, any potential disruption to existing international arrangements requires an authoritative international response.
We believe state successions will continue to happen because there are powerful centrifugal forces at work in the world. Nowadays, every succession may have significant worldwide consequences. It was once thought that only the predecessor state and its successor states were impacted by a state succession’s effect. States, organisations, businesses and population are now closely entwined in legal, political, commercial, military, and diplomatic relationships. Because of this intricate worldwide web, the state succession has a significant influence on ever-widening rings of participants and processes.
Partnership
The State Succession Index and its World Map of State Succession are designed as long-term, open, and evolving project. The project is open to institutional partnerships aimed at further developing its analytical depth, technical sophistication, and global coverage, while preserving analytical independence and methodological integrity.
Partnerships may include, inter alia:
– development of interactive, layered, and dynamic versions of the World Map of State Succession;
– creation of thematic maps, including succession to treaties, sovereign debt, state property, and debts, and other sector-specific international obligations;
– joint research projects, expert consultations, and structured data contributions;
– technical collaboration on data architecture, visualisation tools, databases, and user interfaces;
– educational and capacity-building initiatives, including training and academic outreach; and
– consultancy and analytical support on issues of state succession.
Neutrality
The State Succession Index maintains a neutral and non-advocacy position. All partnerships are governed by the following principles:
– the project does not promote or oppose any political, territorial, or legal claims;
– classifications and visualisations reflect express declarations and observable state practice;
– academic independence, methodological transparency, and source integrity are preserved at all times.
Partnerships support the technical, analytical, and institutional development of the project and do not constitute endorsement of any particular interpretation of international law or position of any state or entity.
Contact
Institutions and organisations interested in collaboration are invited to contact the project team at:
mirbek.sydygaliev@statesuccessionindex.org
