On 6 May 2025, Canada’s Alberta Province Premier Danielle Smith announced that the oil-rich province Alberta could hold its first-ever referendum on independence in 2026.[1] In her speech Premier Smith said: “To be clear from the outset, our government will not be putting a vote on separation from Canada on the referendum ballot; however, if there is a successful citizen-led referendum petition that is able to gather the requisite number of signatures requesting such a question to be put to a referendum, our government will respect the democratic process and include that question on the 2026 provincial referendum ballot as well.”[2] She also added: “Should Ottawa, for whatever reason, continue to attack our province as they have done over the last decade, ultimately that will be for Albertans to decide,” and “I will accept their judgement.”[3]
Premier Smith has tabled legislation that would change citizen-initiated referendum rules to require a petition signed by 10 percent of eligible voters in a previous general election – down from 20 percent of total registered voters. Applicants would also get 120 days, rather than 90, to collect the required 177,000 signatures.[4] New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds that support in Alberta for its respective province to leave confederation is 36%,[5] some in favor of becoming a 51st US state.[6]
Smith added “we know how blessed our province is with an endowment of natural resources that no other country on earth possesses.”[7] Indeed, Alberta’s oil sands are almost 77% Canadian (based on Q1/2022 production volumes).[8] Some of those Canadian companies’ biggest shareholders are foreign companies, like Exxon with 69.6% stake in Imperial and 29% stake in the Kearl Mine make it the fourth largest producer in the oil sands. Apart of this, the biggest foreign owners of Alberta’s oil sands are China’s big three state-owned entities — CNOOC, SINOPEC and PetroChina, account for almost 5% of total output from the oil sands. France’s TotalEnergie places a close 7th.
Legal and Constitutional Framework
Canadian law does not recognise a unilateral right to secession. In its landmark 1998 Reference by the Governor in Council concerning certain questions relating to the secession of Quebec from Canada, the Supreme Court of Canada recognised that “there is no right, under the Constitution or at international law, to unilateral secession”[9] and held that while a clear expression of the will to secede would require the federal government to enter into negotiations, it does not create a right to unilaterally declare independence under either domestic or international law.
The federal Clarity Act (2000), adopted in response to that opinion, codifies this principle. According to section 3(1) of the Clarity Act, a constitutional amendment is required for any province to secede from Canada, and such an amendment would necessitate negotiations with the federal government and all provinces.
It is important to note that the Act contains a provision related to state succession effects. According to paragraph 3(2) no Minister of the Crown shall propose a constitutional amendment to effect the secession of a province from Canada unless the Government of Canada has addressed, in its negotiations, the terms of secession that are relevant in the circumstances, including the division of assets and liabilities, any changes to the borders of the province,[10] etc.
Thus, Alberta’s potential secession would therefore require a complex, multi-party process under Canadian constitutional law, rather than a simple majority vote in a provincial referendum.
Scenarios of State Succession
Premier Smith in her speech has referred to both “separation” and “independence,” which opens two distinct state succession trajectories:
1. Alberta as an Independent State: Should Alberta seek full sovereignty, several questions arise:
- Criteria for Statehood: Alberta appears to meet the Montevideo Convention criteria: defined territory, permanent population, government, and capacity to enter into foreign relations.
- Recognition: If Alberta declares independence, recognition from other States is not guaranteed – particularly from Canada or its allies. But US could potentially recognise Alberta. Delays or refusals could prevent Alberta from joining multilateral organizations like the UN, IMF, or WTO.
- Succession Issues: As Canada is not a party to the 1978 Vienna Convention on Succession of States in respect of Treaties, Alberta’s assumption of treaty rights and obligations would need to be negotiated de novo. This includes: Bilateral investment treaties (BITs); Environmental and trade agreements; Extradition and aviation treaties.
2. Alberta Joins the United States: If Alberta’s secession leads to accession to the United States:
- The situation resembles state absorption by applying the “moving treaty frontiers rule”, i.e. the extension of the U.S. legal regime, not full state succession. Alberta’s international legal personality would be extinguished.
- Canada’s treaties would not follow Alberta into the U.S. framework, nor would Alberta inherit Canada’s international obligations.
- This could raise constitutional issues for the U.S., requiring approval by both Congress and potentially the President, under Article IV, Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution.
Both paths would significantly impact public and private international law obligations, from diplomatic relations to citizenship, border controls, and investment regimes.
Foreign Investment Implications
Alberta’s energy sector is of particular concern in any succession scenario:
If Alberta becomes independent:
- It will not probably automatically inherit Canada’s BITs, potentially depriving investors of treaty protections.
- Investors may face regulatory uncertainty and risk of renegotiated concessions; probably the risk of business expropriation is low.
- Alberta could face international arbitration if legacy investors invoke sunset clauses in investment contracts or treaties.
If Alberta joins the United States:
- Alberta would become part of the U.S. legal and regulatory framework, including U.S. federal investment protections and trade policies.
- Foreign investors may benefit from the comparatively strong investor protections available under U.S. law, including access to federal courts and the U.S. Constitution’s Takings Clause.
- Existing Canadian treaties would become irrelevant, but investors protected under U.S. free trade agreements may retain or even improve their legal position.
- However, non-U.S. investors, particularly those from China, may face increased scrutiny under U.S. foreign investment regulations, such as reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.
Conclusion
Alberta’s potential separation raises significant questions under Canadian constitutional law, international law, and the law of state succession. While public support remains a minority (36% per Angus Reid Institute), legal and political conditions are evolving. Premier Smith’s conditional support for a democratic process places Alberta on a path where secession is possible, though legally constrained and diplomatically uncertain.
For now, Alberta’s situation remains a watchpoint for the State Succession Index, particularly in light of its economic assets and rising political tensions with the federal government. Further monitoring is warranted as the 2026 referendum approaches and public mobilization unfolds.
[1] https://nypost.com/2025/05/10/world-news/albertas-break-up-talk-with-canada-gets-real-its-time-that-were-set-free/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[2] https://www.alberta.ca/article-alberta-next-albertans-to-decide-path-forward-for-the-province
[3] https://apnews.com/article/canada-alberta-referendum-separation-b3da116c6800347f82da5011ee29f8f3
[4] https://apnews.com/article/canada-alberta-referendum-separation-b3da116c6800347f82da5011ee29f8f3
[5] https://angusreid.org/referendum-alberta-saskatchewan-smith-moe/
[6] https://nypost.com/2025/05/10/world-news/albertas-break-up-talk-with-canada-gets-real-its-time-that-were-set-free/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
[7] https://www.alberta.ca/article-alberta-next-albertans-to-decide-path-forward-for-the-province
[8] https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/news/2022/6/15/foreign-ownership-oilsands-bp-sale-sunrise-cenovus
[9] https://decisions.scc-csc.ca/scc-csc/scc-csc/en/item/1643/index.do
[10] https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/c-31.8/page-1.html