7 April 2025.
Bougainville Independence Leaders Consultation Forum has passed key resolutions and recommended 1 September 2027 as the date for Bougainville’s independence on 11 March 2025 meeting [1]. The Forum goes further to say that the Papua New Guinea (PNG) national government holds no authority to veto the referendum results and is required to collaborate in implementing the Bougainville Peace Agreement and referendum outcome for Independence [1]. The recommendation of a specific independence date reflects Bougainville’s determination to advance its sovereignty aspirations. As Autonomous Bougainville Government (ABG) President Ishmael Toroama challenges PNG by saying: ‘Bougainville has done its part in the peace process. It is now your turn’[2].
PNG’s Prime Minister James Marape in his turn not has committed to backing Bougainville’s independence — saying it could set a “dangerous precedent in a nation of so much diversity” and that a proper process must be followed [3]. Asked whether he supported Bougainville’s independence, Marape said: “here’s a process that will facilitate the peace process. “I can’t pre-empt the outcome of the process.” [3].
PNG’s apprehensions about setting a secession precedent highlight the complexities of the situation. Nevertheless, as both sides are engaging in peaceful dialogue and with the involvement of a mediator, the current process is institutionalized. No indicators currently suggest a breakdown in negotiations or a return to violence. The major risk factors are delays or rejection by PNG’s Parliament which could frustrate expectations and revive secessionist tensions. A unilateral declaration of independence—while not imminent—would complicate diplomatic recognition and expose Bougainville to economic and legal risks.
In terms of economic security, Bougainville President Toroama is seeking international investors to re-open one of the world’s biggest copper mines, with Marape backing his authority to make business decisions on the mine as the autonomous region travels a pathway to independence. “We start with economic independence as a fundamental basis, because once you have the money you are able to sustain,” Marape said at a resources conference in Sydney. [4].
State Succession Implications
If Bougainville becomes independent, it will trigger state succession, a legal and political process whereby a new state assumes certain rights and obligations of a predecessor state – Papue New Guinea. Based on current trends, the transition would likely follow a consensual separation model:
Treaty Obligations: It depends on negotiation results, but Bougainville is expected to adopt a “clean slate” approach, whereby it would not automatically inherit PNG’s treaty obligations as the first draft of Independent Bougainville Constitution of 6 May 2024 keeps silence on treaty succession matter. Instead, it would probably selectively accede to key multilateral treaties, including those related to trade, human rights, and environmental governance.
Citizenship and Nationality: PNG and ABG have yet to finalize nationality frameworks. A dual citizenship model may be implemented to manage the population’s legal status as the first 2024 draft Constitution stipulates that ‘[a] citizen of Bougainville may hold dual or multiple citizenship.’
Public Debt: Public debt division needs to be negotiated. Bougainville may assume a limited share of PNG’s public debtor seek debt-free independence, depending on the outcome of bilateral talks.
Property and assets: According to the section 169(1) of the first draft Constitution ‘[a]ll property and assets that, immediately before independence day, were vested in the Autonomous Bougainville Government, vest in the Republic.’ Nevertheless, agreements will be required for the transfer of properties and assets whereby special agreements will be required for the transfer foreign properties and infrastructure, with PNG likely retaining most extraterritorial diplomatic assets (embassies).
State Archives: Agreements will be required for the transfer of records and archival materials related to Bougainville.
Rights, liabilities and obligations: Section 169(2) of the 2024 draft Constitution stipulates that ‘[a]ll rights, liabilities and obligations of the Autonomous Bougainville Government, whether arising out of contract or otherwise, are rights, liabilities and obligations of the Republic.’
International Recognition and Membership: Bougainville is likely to gain broad international recognition if independence occurs through PNG parliamentary ratification. It would need to apply for membership in international organizationssuch as the UN, WTO, IMF, and others.
Implications for Stakeholders
Major stakeholders need to assess the implications of potential independence of Bougainville in 2027 in advance. Foreign Governments and its legal advisors need to assess continuity or renegotiation of bilateral agreements currently held with Papua New Guinea that could extend to a new Bougainville state. Businesses and Investors should monitor the legal status of contracts, property rights, and regulatory obligations as the succession process evolves. Whereas multilateral Institutions should prepare for Bougainville’s application for membership, prepare to consider citizenship issues and provide technical assistance on succession issues.
Sources:
- https://www.rnz.co.nz / international/pacific-news/544577/bougainville-leaders-forum-recommends-september-2027-for-independence
- https://www.rnz.co.nz / news/pacific/545127/bougainville-president-papua-new-guinea-must-endorse-independence-referendum
- https://pina.com.fj /2025/04/02/bougainville-impasse-png-pm-warns-of-dangerous-precedent/?utm_
- https://www.reuters.com / world/asia-pacific/pacific-island-bougainvilles-independence-path-relies-economy-says-pngs-marape-2024-12-11/?utm