The level of processes - Ongoing/under negotiation
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (Artsakh Republic) dissolution and unification with Azerbaijan
The landlocked mountainous region of Nagorno-Karabakh has been the subject of a long-standing territorial dispute between Azerbaijan, in which it lies, and its ethnic Armenian majority, backed by neighbouring Armenia. In 1991 with the break-up of the Soviet Union, Karabakh declares itself an independent republic (Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, also known as the Republic of Artsakh), though internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. While Armenia itself never officially recognised the region's independence, it became its main financial and military backer and the territory functioned as a de facto part of Armenia. After the First (1992-1994) and the Second (2020) Karabakh wars and 2022, 2023 fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani troops, Azerbaijani forces rapidly overwhelm defending troops and seize the region.
On 28 September 2023 Samvel Shahramanyan Nagorno-Karabakh Republic’s President announced that he had signed an order dissolving all state institutions from 1 January 2024. Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan has signed a declaration at a meeting with the EU, Germany and France on the sidelines of the European Political Community summit in Granada (Spain), in which he recognized the area of Azerbaijan as 86,600 square kilometers, which includes Karabakh. Azerbaijan has said it wants to re-integrate the ethnic Armenians as "equal citizens."
On 25 December 2023 Armenia has received a new version of proposals on the peace agreement between the countries from Azerbaijan. Thus, negotiations for a peace agreement are still continuing and thus the question of succession is also on the table of negotiations.
Sources: BBC
The level of processes - Intensive
New Caledonia Independence (France)
A French overseas territory in the Pacific, New Caledonia has seen deep divisions between its indigenous Kanak population and Europeans, most notably over the thorny question of independence. New Caledonia enjoys a large degree of autonomy but depends heavily on France for matters like defence and education. Following bouts of violence in the 1980s over the issue of independence, several agreements were signed including the 1998 Noumea Accord, which set out a roadmap for greater autonomy for the territory. This included up to three referendums on independence. The first two in 2018 and 2020 showed slim majorities for remaining part of France. The third in 2021 was boycotted by pro-independence parties after the authorities refused to postpone the vote due to the Covid epidemic. The first separatist president of New Caledonia's the government since the Nouméa agreement Louis Mapou has told the UN that he wants to put the future direction of New Caledonia back on the table by 2024. Pro-independence parties, which have been in power since 2017, want full sovereignty by 2025.
During November 2023 congress of the Union Calédonienne party - New Caledonia's main pro-independence party has reaffirmed its rejection of the document laying the foundations for negotiating an agreement on the archipelago's future – albeit while not ruling out recourse to "international mediation". Roch Wamytan, a leading figure in the pro-independence party and President of the Congress of New Caledonia, the archipelago's deliberative body, said that if the French government refuses to review its position, the UC intends to resort to "international mediation". The purpose of the mediation would be to implement transitional justice in order to "put the colonisation of our country and reparations on trial", he said, and "to enable reconciliation between the peoples that France has brought here, on our soil".
Sources: BBC, The Guardian, Euronews
Autonomous Region of Bougainville independence (Papua New Guinea)
Bougainville, which is made up of one large island and several outlying islands and atolls, has sought independence since long before Papua New Guinea’s own independence from Australia in 1975. Bougainville declared independence two weeks before Papua New Guinea’s independence from Australia but received no recognition from the international community. After a bloody decade-long civil war between Bougainville and Papua New Guinea was culminated in a 2001 peace agreement, which required that Bougainville hold an independence referendum before 2020 but gave Papua New Guinea’s National Parliament the final say on the region’s political future.
On 16 November 2023, Bougainville’s President Toroama said, Bougainville has “reached the point of no return,” with the government planning to achieve independence between 2025 and 2027. On 21 December 2023 the Bougainville House of Representatives passed the 2024 Autonomous Bougainville Government (ABG) Budget. During parliamentary discussions ABG Minister for Finance Hon. Robin Wilson said that “the major expenditure focus areas of the 2024 ABG Budget are on Bougainville’s priorities towards building strong economic policies and highly effective work programs aimed at developing capacity and progressing government initiatives towards independence-preparedness.”
Sources: USIP, Autonomous Bougainville Government website
Corsica independence (France)
Corsica is a territorial collectivity of France, which means that it exercises the powers of both a region and a department. It has a regional assembly, which sits in Ajaccio. The regional prefect is the top representative of the French central government on the island. The island’s nationalist leaders are themselves divided, with some supporting more autonomy in areas like fiscal powers — alongside the official recognition of the Corsican language — and hardliners backing full independence.
On 28 September 2023 France's President Emmanuel Macron proposed a constitutional text to Corsica's elected representatives to build autonomy for the island "without any disengagement from the state." He promised "a constitutional and organic text to be submitted for approval within six months" to Corsica's elected representatives, which would give them "the possibility of defining standards on different topics or transfer of powers" under the control of the Council of State and the Constitutional Council. Under the timetable set out by the French president, Corsican lawmakers have until March 2024 to reach some form of “consensus” on a proposal for Corsican autonomy that is acceptable to his government.
Sources: BBC, Voanews, Euronews, France24
Scotland Independence (United Kingdom)
In September 2014, when Scottish voters were given the choice of staying in the UK or becoming an independent country. They backed staying the UK by 55% to 45%. Former Scottish First Minister Ms Sturgeon called for another referendum immediately after the UK as a whole voted to leave the EU in the 2016 Brexit referendum. But, former Prime Minister Boris Johnson previously suggested that another referendum shouldn’t be held for about 40 years, with Rishi Sunak - the current incumbent of No 10 - also opposed to another vote.
Despite that Scottish National Party delegates have backed Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf's plan to use the next general election result to push for a second independence referendum. Also, the Scottish Government undertakes preparatory work and advocacy of importance and necessity of independence for Scotland. The Scottish Government has published a series of papers setting out the case to break away from the UK. Up to date, there has been issued five papers in the last two years, including two in 2023 on: Creating a modern constitution for an independent Scotland (19 June 2023), and Citizenship in an independent Scotland (27 July 2023).
Sources: BBC, Scottish Government website,
Orkney Islands (United Kingdom) Secession/Unification with Norway
Orkney Islands - the United Kingdom archipelago off the north coast of Scotland could leave the UK to become a self-governing territory of Norway after its council opted to explore “alternative forms of governance.” The archipelago will also consider changing its legal status within Britain as it seeks to provide more economic opportunities. A motion has been put forward by the Orkney Islands council leader, James Stockan, to explore its “Nordic connections”, as well as looking at the governance structures of crown dependencies such as Guernsey, Jersey and the Isle of Man. Orkney Islands Council previously voted in 2017 to look at whether the islands could have greater autonomy. While they wanted to have a "stronger voice", they did not back full independence for Orkney.
Downing Street shut down suggestions that the islands could loosen ties with Scotland and Westminster, with UK Prime-Minister Rishi Sunak’s official spokesman telling reporters on 3 July 2023: “Fundamentally, we are stronger as one United Kingdom, we have no plans to change that. We’ve got no plans to change the devolution settlement. Mr Sunak's spokesman insisted there was “no mechanism for the conferral of crown dependency or overseas territory status on any part of the UK”.
Sources: The Guardian, Independent
The level of processes - Moderate
Romania-Moldova Unification
The Russian invasion of Ukraine gave impulse to the re-emergence of public discussions in both Romania and the Republic of Moldova concerning the potential reunification. Amid the period of uncertainty weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Bucharest and Chisinau finalized a series of cooperation agreements on a range of issues, from granting Moldova 100 million euros in nonreimbursable development aid to strengthening partnerships on investment and energy security. This partnership is not solely based on a shared border but on a shared language, culture, and history. Public support does seem to be trending upward: only 15-20 percent of Moldovans backed reintegration a decade ago, a figure that rose above 40 percent by 2021. A Romanian poll in 2018 conducted by the Romanian Bureau of Social Research showed that as many as 74% of Romanians would vote in favour of unification in a hypothetical referendum. To commemorate the 100th anniversary of the unification (the territory then known as Bessarabia declared independence in 1918 and joined the Kingdom of Romania), the Romanian Parliament passed a resolution in 2018, which pledged to unify the two countries in the future.
But precisely what kind of reunification citizens have in mind is not clear. Political rhetoric usually implies one of three scenarios (or a combination thereof: 1) unification by absorption; 2) gradual unification; 3) indirect unification). Tellingly, none of them have been publicly and clearly articulated, revealing something about the degree of preparedness among decision-makers in both countries for implementing a plan.
Sources: GISreportsonline, E-international relations,
Palestine recognition
Efforts to create a Palestinian state on the West Bank of the River Jordan and Gaza on the Mediterranean coast have been frustrated by the continuing conflict with Israel. Palestinians have been striving for self-determination but have achieved only limited control over their affairs. The Palestinian Authority made a symbolic bid for recognition at the UN as the "State of Palestine" in 2011, mainly in an effort to highlight the lack of movement in relations with Israel. This failed to gain the required support, but UNESCO did admit the "State of Palestine" as a member. In November 2012, the UN General Assembly voted to upgrade the status of Palestine from "observer entity" to "non-member observer State"- a move that allows them to take part in General Assembly debates and improves their chances of joining UN agencies.
Amidst the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro announced on 13 November 2023 his country’s intention to submit a proposal to the UN to recognise Palestine as a fully independent, member state. Earlier on 19 October 2023 the Colombian President announced the establishment of an embassy to the State of Palestine in Ramallah, West Bank (Colombia recognised Palestine as a free, independent and sovereign state on 3 August 2018).
Sources: BBC, CNN, MIddleeastmonitor
The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus recognition
Cyprus has been divided since 1974, when Turkey invaded the north after a military coup backed by Greece. The island was effectively partitioned, with the northern third run by a Turkish Cypriot government and the southern two-thirds by the internationally-recognised government led by Greek Cypriots. The self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) is recognised as an independent state only by Turkey, while the rest of the world sees it as part of Cyprus. The U.K. is one of Cyprus’ three “guarantor nations,” along with Turkey and Greece.
The Turkish side supports a solution based on the equal sovereignty of the two states on the island but the Greek side wants a federal solution based on the hegemony of the Greeks. Britain has been consistently in favour of the federal solution. In 2004 Cyprus joined the EU, but does so as a divided island.
The decision to grant observer status to the North Cyprus Turkish Republic was taken unanimously at an Organisation of Turkic States Summit in the Uzbek city of Samarkand on 11 November 2022. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has recently redoubled his calls for the international recognition of Northern Cyprus. On 15 November 2023 President Ersin Tatar addressed the main parade held to mark the 40th anniversary of the proclamation of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. President Tatar said: “The realities and facts on the ground need to be accepted by the international community, if there is going to be a settlement.” Emphasising “this settlement has to be based on the cooperative relationship of two States,” President Tatar said. “From this point on, we must never retract from the two States policy; a federal settlement would be the beginning of the end of the Turkish Cypriot People.”
Sources: BBC
Taiwan Derecognition/Unification with China
China sees self-ruled Taiwan as a breakaway province that will eventually be under Beijing's control. China's President Xi Jinping has said "reunification" with Taiwan “must be fulfilled” - and has not ruled out the possible use of force to achieve this. But Taiwan sees itself as distinct from the Chinese mainland, with its own constitution and democratically-elected leaders.
On 26 March 2023 Honduras ended its decades-long diplomatic relations with Taiwan in favour of ties with China. The Honduras foreign ministry said that “the government of Honduras recognises the existence of just one China in the world.” Thus, by the end of 2023 only 13 countries (plus the Vatican) recognise Taiwan as a sovereign country.
Sources: BBC
Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic derecognition
Western Sahara became a Spanish possession in the late nineteenth century, and that country was the metropolis until February 1976, at which time Morocco and Mauritania occupied and annexed the territory. Since 1979, Morocco has been the permanent occupier of part of the territory. Western Sahara is considered non-self-governing territory by the United Nations since 1963. Western Sahara has a long history of resistance dating back to the early twentieth century. In 1973, the Polisario Front movement formed, began a war of liberation, and created a state in exile, the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR), in 1976. The national Sahrawi movement has been able to create a proto-state in exile with a certain degree of international recognition, and its status as a national liberation movement has been recognised by the United Nations. A number of states recognised the SADR in response. The number of recognising states fluctuated and peaked at about 80 states, although half of them later withdrew their recognition. Morocco has never contemplated the possibility of independence for Western Sahara and only wants the Settlement Plan to confirm Moroccan control over the territory, while the Polisario Front has always maintained its right to self-determination and rejects any other solution. The 1991 Settlement Plan was blocked by Morocco and it has not been possible to hold a referendum.
In 2023 Peru has announced its decision to suspend diplomatic relations with the Polisario Front in accordance with international law, which means withdrawal of recognition of SADR. This decision comes into effect 8 September (Peru recognised Polisario on 16 August 1984).
Sources: Aljazeera
The level of processes - Slow/Inactive
Kurdistan Independence (Iraq)
An independence referendum for the Kurdistan Region of Iraq was held on 25 September 2017, with preliminary results showing approximately 92.73 percent of votes cast in favour of independence. Almost 93 percent of Iraq’s Kurds voted to create an independent state, the High Elections and Referendum Commission said on Wednesday, in a referendum that has angered the Baghdad government and regional powers Turkey and Iran. Iraq, Turkiye and Iran are all against the referendum. The US is also against Kurds’ independence because they don’t want anything to weaken Iraq – one of its key allies in the fighting against ISIL.
Kurdistan operates as Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and conduct talks with the Iraqi federal government through the governmental team for negotiations between the Kurdistan Region and the federal government on issues of KRG’s budget, salaries of its public sector employees. KRG recognises its commitment to resolving all pending issues between Erbil and Baghdad in accordance with the Iraqi constitution, bilateral agreements, and respect for the federal status of the Kurdistan Region.
Sources: Euronews, DW, Kurdistan region website
Catalonia Independence (Spain)
In 2014 Catalonia Regional Government backed by the two main separatist parties holds a non-binding independence referendum, with 80% of those taking part voting "yes". A 2017 breakaway referendum prompted Spain's deepest political crisis for decades, with the Catalan regional parliament declaring independence and Madrid temporarily imposing direct rule.
On 16 October 2023 the President of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès, stressed this morning that his and the Catalan Government’s commitment to resolving the political conflict in Catalonia is through “a Scottish-style referendum” voted on “by the citizens of Catalonia.” Following this path, the citizens of Catalonia could vote “yes or no on independence”, from which point the path that necessarily leads to implementing the result would begin.
Over the course of 2023, the network of delegations abroad has taken a qualitative leap forward. The Catalan Government made it a priority to consolidate delegations abroad and has seen this through: it has opened delegations in the Southern Cone (based in Buenos Aires) and in South Korea; it has appointed four new delegates (in Brazil, Andorra, Japan and the Andean States); it has increased the budget and staffing of strategic delegations, and it has also created new positions such as special envoys.
The Government of Catalonia has also launched an advertising campaign in the 27 EU member states advocating official status for Catalan in the European institutions. The Catalan Government has been working at three different levels to intensify political contacts with European governments. First, in Barcelona and Madrid with contacts with the consular corps and embassies. Second, through the Government of Catalonia’s delegations abroad located in member states, which are establishing contacts in the capitals of the various countries. And third, through the Delegation of the Government to the European Union, which is coordinating a large part of the strategy, and is making contacts with the permanent delegations of the member states to the European Union.
Sources: Euronews, Catalan Government website
Transnistria Independence/Unification with Moldova
Transnistria (officially the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic) declared its independence in 1990. Transnistria is a breakaway region in Eastern Europe, internationally recognized as part of the Republic of Moldova but operating as a self-declared independent state. This self-proclaimed Transnistrian government is supported by Russian military aid, with 1,500 Russian peacekeepers stationed in the region, largely to “protect” a large ammunition depot in the village of Cobasna. The Moldovan government supports the full reintegration of Transnistria into the country. The aim of the Transnistrian region, in contrast, is full independence from Moldova. This is especially true under the governance of the Renewal party, which holds a majority of seats in the Transnistrian parliament.
The main diplomatic negotiation platform for resolving the conflict has been the so called "5+2 format", which brings together Moldova, Transnistria, Russia, Ukraine, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the European Union and the United States. However, this format has been frozen since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and finding a replacement for the format is now a key priority. It is clear the 5+2 initiative is unlikely to produce significant outcomes in the foreseeable future, given the current geopolitical climate. The two leading mediators, Ukraine and Russia, are essentially engaged in a state of war, while the third mediator, the OSCE, is grappling with an existential crisis as it confronts the larger issue of Russia’s role within the organisation.
Sources: GISreportsonline, LSE blog
Kosovo recognition/derecognition
In February 2008, Kosovo unilaterally declared its independence. In July 2010 the International Court of Justice issued advisory opinion on Kosovo's declaration of independence and concludes that it did not violate general international law or UN Security Council Resolution 1244/99. In December 2022 Kosovo submits an application for EU membership. On 9 January 2023 Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said nine more countries – six of them in Africa – had withdrawn their recognition of the former Serbian province, claiming that now 'only 84 [countries] unequivocally recognize it'.
In May 2023, EU finally formalized the decision to liberalize visas starting from January 2024. The so-called French-German diplomatic initiative launched in the fall of 2022 culminated on February 27, 2023, with an endorsed final text of a basic agreement between Kosovo and Serbia, as well as a subsequent implementation plan agreed on March 18. Both are seen by the EU and United States as interim agreements en routeto a comprehensive one and are considered legally binding even though unsigned—attached as conditions to the countries’ respective paths toward EU accession. Kosovo also made progress with implementing the Common Regional Market action plan, notably by ratifying the three ‘Berlin process agreements' on free movement and mutual recognition of qualifications.
Sources: AtlanticCouncil, Balkaninsight, Kosovo Foreign Ministry website, Forbes